1月中旬にカナダ中銀の貸付金利が下げられたばかりですが、次回3月の見直しではさらに0.25ポイント引き下げられるのではという観測が広がっています。CIBCやTD CANADA TRUSTに次いで、RBCも同じような予報を発表しました。恐らく2015年一杯は現在の低金利が継続され、2016年には現行レベルまで戻るとの観測です。ここ数ヶ月でモーゲージの切り替えが迫っている人は、的確なアドバイスを専門家から得て、有利なモーゲージ契約更新を目指しましょう！

Three out of the five major banks have now predicted further rate cuts to come from the Bank of Canada, though this one doesn’t expect these record rates to last long.

“The surprise interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada and resulting downward revision to our interest rate forecasts this year and next—we expect another 25 basis point cut by the Bank in the near term and historically low bond yields to rise more gradually than we assumed previously,” the Royal Bank of Canada wrote in its Canadian Housing Forecast update.

Canada’s largest bank has forecasted the BoC overnight rate will sit at 0.50 per cent by year’s end before climbing back up to two per cent by the end of 2016. The overnight rate currently sits at ¾ of a per cent.

Meanwhile, the five-year bond yield is expected to climb slightly to 1.8 per cent by end-of-year 2015 and reach 2.8 by the end of 2016.

RBC is the third bank to predict a pending rate cut from the central bank, with both CIBC and TD Bank making the same claim.

“The Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut the overnight rate by 25 basis points in mid-January, on the negative impact of lower oil prices on inflation and the real economy. At that time, it also signaled that it saw most of the risks to inflation to be tilted to the downside,” TD’s economic update, published in late January states. “Given our weaker oil price, inflation, and output forecast relative to the Bank, it therefore holds that we expect some of those downside risks to be realized.

“As such, we forecast that the Bank of Canada will cut the overnight rate by an additional 25 basis points at its next fixed announcement date in March.”