4月30日にCMHCの市場分析リポートが発表され、カナダで一番高いと言われるバンクーバーの不動産ですが、人口増加、世帯収入の増加による需要供給バランスから急激な価格崩壊(いわゆるバブル)状態にはないとの判断です。ファーストタイムバイヤーや、中間所得者層は郊外物件へ、一方高所得者や、住み替えによって多額の売却益を得る人達は、近郊の一戸建てを購入する傾向にあるそうです。日本のバブルを目の当たりにした我々は未だに懐疑的な見方をする人もいますが、既に価格上昇開始から10数年以上経っていますので、多少の上下はあるもののこれ以上待っても下がらないというのが一般的な見解です。それぞれ購入可能な範囲でベストの不動産物件を見つけて、ご家族の生活環境の充実を図った方がよさそうです。

Despite having the highest residential real estate prices in the country, Vancouver’s housing market is not overvalued and is very unlikely to see a correction, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

The CHMC’s latest House Price Analysis and Assessment report, published April 30, considers the “incidence, intensity and persistence” of four key risk factors that suggest potentially problematic housing market conditions.

Those factors are:
1. overheating of demand in the housing market (demand significantly outpacing supply);
2. acceleration in the growth rate of house prices;
3. overvaluation in the level of house prices; and
4. overbuilding of the housing market (supply significantly outpacing demand, which can reflect excess new construction and/or a decline in demand for existing homes).

The CHMC said that in Vancouver “none of the individual risk factors are currently detected”.

“Despite high Vancouver home prices, demand for housing across the price spectrum is supported by a growing population and growth in personal disposable income,” said the report.

“First-time home buyers focus on lower-priced options in suburban locales. At the upper end of the price spectrum, high-net-worth residents, and those who have gained equity in their homes, are more likely to buy single-detached homes in central locations and luxury property.”

The report added that high house prices do not necessarily equate to overvaluation. “Overvaluation is present in a housing market when house prices remain significantly above the level warranted by fundamental drivers such as land supply, income, population, and interest rates … For example, average prices in Vancouver exceed the national average, although no overvaluation is detected. In comparison, average prices in Québec are below the national average and overvaluation is detected.”

The CHMC said that overvaluation in Regina and Winnipeg means that those markets are at a high risk of correction.