2年前に鳴り物入りでアメリカから進出してきたTARGETが早くも撤退を決めました。私も数回行った事がありますが、特に安いという印象は無く、普通のジャイアント・リーテーラーで品揃えも特に特徴のない感じでしたが、郊外や小さな街での需要はそれなりにあったようで、メープルリッジ店などは地域住民が残念だとコメントしていました。これら大型店の撤退は商業不動産リース市場だけでなく、大型失業による地域経済に大きな影響を及ぼします。不動産投資をする場合には、この様に一つの大きな企業や、産業(ランバーやオイルなど)に依存している街は避けるべきでしょう。繁盛期は一気に人口が増えて価格も急上昇しますが、一旦景気が落ち始めると底なしで、売却も大変難しくなります。

The announcement last week that Target will close its 133 Canadian stores is a reminder to investors to buy residential property in cities with diversified job markets.

Eddy Boudiwan, head of real estate investments at Real Estate Rangers and Taft Forward Management Joint Venture, manages properties in towns impacted by the Target closures.

“I always advise our investors and partners to only invest in towns that are not ‘a one-trick pony’, where one or two industries employ most of the job force,” he added.

“Our investment portfolio is located in towns where the job industry is diversified. For example, we are invested in Orillia, where the local Target location will be closed. However, there is a new Costco store coming in, while Walmart and other major stores moved in a few years ago.”

Boudiwan is more concerned about the macro level of Canada’s real estate market, as the price of oil continues its decline and job numbers also plummet.

“Canada lost about 10,000 jobs in November and about 4,300 jobs in December,” he said. “I expect more job losses to follow in Q1 of 2015, with a very low GDP growth forecast.

“I am not projecting doom and gloom, but I do see a very flat path for the next few years, which could present buying opportunities in the years to come. Right now, asset valuations are not realistic.”